The Future of US-China Trade Relations: Scenarios and Preparations

The US tariffs on Chinese goods have created distinct winner and loser categories. Products with low tariff exposure (under 10%) continue to flow normally. High-tariff categories have seen buyers shift to Vietnam, India, and Mexico for final assembly. However, China remains dominant for components and intermediate goods — many 'Made in Vietnam' products still rely on Chinese raw materials and parts.

Supply chain diversification is no longer optional for most importers. The pandemic, trade tensions, and shipping disruptions have made single-country sourcing a significant risk. The practical approach is not to move everything from China but to develop parallel sources in Southeast Asia or Mexico for critical items. Keep China for high-volume, cost-sensitive production. Use alternative sources for geopolitical risk coverage.