The Future of US-China Trade Relations: Scenarios and Preparations

The global energy transition is creating massive demand for Chinese solar, battery, and EV components. China controls over 80% of solar manufacturing and 70% of battery production. Importers in these sectors face both opportunity and risk: competitive pricing but increasing regulatory scrutiny. Building relationships with compliant, certified Chinese manufacturers is essential for long-term supply security.

African import demand is diversifying beyond traditional commodities. Fastest-growing import categories include machinery, electronics, construction materials, and processed foods. Chinese exporters are well-positioned in these categories, but face increasing competition from Indian, Turkish, and European suppliers. The winners will be those who invest in local market knowledge, warehousing, and after-sales service.

Latin America presents a complex but rewarding import market from China. Brazil requires extensive local documentation and has high tariffs. Mexico benefits from USMCA proximity but has its own regulatory framework. Chile and Peru have free trade agreements with China, making them easier entry points. The common thread across the region is the importance of local partnerships — attempting to go it alone in Latin America rarely works.