The Future of US-China Trade Relations: Scenarios and Preparations

China's manufacturing wage growth has slowed significantly. Average manufacturing wages rose about 3% annually in 2024-2026 compared to 8-10% a decade ago. Combined with automation investments, China remains cost-competitive for most manufactured goods. The gap with Southeast Asia is narrowing for labor-intensive products but China maintains advantages in infrastructure, supply chain density, and skilled technical workers.

African import demand is diversifying beyond traditional commodities. Fastest-growing import categories include machinery, electronics, construction materials, and processed foods. Chinese exporters are well-positioned in these categories, but face increasing competition from Indian, Turkish, and European suppliers. The winners will be those who invest in local market knowledge, warehousing, and after-sales service.

RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) reduces tariffs between 15 Asia-Pacific countries. For importers, this means: (1) lower costs for products using RCEP-originating materials, (2) simplified customs procedures, (3) cumulation of origin rules that make it easier to qualify for preferential rates. The impact is gradual — tariff reductions phase in over 20 years — but early adopters gain competitive advantage.